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Post by Webster on Jul 28, 2023 20:57:16 GMT -5
 Previous 2024 Presidential Campaign Threads: Part 1, Part 2(The Guardian) Trump, DeSantis and top Republican candidates to share stage at Iowa eventEvery major Republican presidential candidate will share a stage in the early voting state of Iowa tonight, as Donald Trump continues to dominate in the polls despite his numerous legal liabilities. Most of the 13 candidates will appear at the Iowa Republican party’s 2023 Lincoln Dinner fundraiser, giving them an opportunity to address donors and local party leaders with less than six months left before the state’s crucial caucuses. The lineup of confirmed speakers for tonight are: -Donald Trump -Ron DeSantis -Mike Pence -Nikki Haley -Tim Scott -Vivek Ramaswamy -Asa Hutchinson -Larry Elder -Perry Johnson -Doug Burgum -Francis Suarez -Ryan Binkley -Will Hurd The event is scheduled to begin at 7pm ET. |
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Post by Webster on Jul 28, 2023 20:58:09 GMT -5
(The Guardian) At the Iowa Republican party’s 2023 Lincoln Dinner fundraiser, the super PAC backing Ron DeSantis has set up baseballs to throw at cans of Bud Light. From the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher:
The Lincoln Dinner, put on by Iowa’s Republican Party is underway. All of the Republican candidates for president, except Chris Christie, will deliver speeches of up to 10min to the ballroom audience. Up first were Jeff Kaufman a state representative and Kim Reynolds, the governor of Iowa.
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Post by Webster on Jul 28, 2023 20:59:02 GMT -5
(The Guardian) Iowa governor Kim Reynolds just stepped off of the Lincoln Dinner stage. During her speech she touted the state’s supermajority and passage of conservative education and abortion policies. She told the dinner audience: We’re empowering parents and protecting life.”Earlier this month state legislators voted to ban most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, a time before most people know they are pregnant.
Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina was the first presidential hopeful to address the Lincoln Dinner audience. She emphasized the nation’s $32tn debt as well as the economic struggles facing many American families. She also took an unsurprising aim at the Biden administration, claiming that a 2024 win for Biden will mean that Kamala Harris is really the one winning the election.
Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, a potential Republican ticket frontrunner, just left the stage. He emphasized the policies that have allowed the state to “beat the left’s agenda”. He also vowed to deploy the military to the southern border and use “deadly force” on cartels. DeSantis’ assaults on transgender healthcare, abortion access and ethnic studies and LGBTQ+ education have been well-documented. In May, the Guardian published a story where wide minority groups warned of what the damage his presidency could do to the nation.
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Post by Webster on Jul 28, 2023 21:00:24 GMT -5
(The Guardian) We’re approaching the halfway point of tonight’s Lincoln Dinner in Iowa. So far, six Republican candidate hopefuls have given their spiel on their plans for the nation. They are: -Nikki Haley -Asa Hutchinson -Ron DeSantis -Tim Scott -Perry Johnson -Doug Burgum Each speaker has called out salient issues in today’s culture wars like abortion access, healthcare for transgender children and ethnic studies in schools.
At the podium now is former vice-president Mike Pence. He opens his speech by calling out what he sees as Joe Biden’s failing at the border and pro-choice stance. - “Joe Biden has been a disaster for America,” he tells the crowd.In addition to standard conservative talking points on the national debt and national security, he also vowed to implement a ban on trans people in the military.
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Post by Webster on Jul 28, 2023 21:02:25 GMT -5
(The Guardian) Will Hurd, a former US representative from Texas and lesser-known candidate in the Republican race, left the stage to the sound of boos after he said that Donald Trump is running for president just to stay out prison.
Most of the Republican speakers at tonight’s Lincoln Dinner did not take aim at any of their peers, but Donald Trump, who just left the podium to cheers, took several jabs at Ron DeSantis. He continuously mispronounced his name, called out his opposition to ethanol production and argued that the Florida governor was lagging behind in the polls. “I wouldn’t take a chance on that one,” Trump said of DeSantis.
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Post by Webster on Jul 31, 2023 17:58:23 GMT -5
(The Guardian) One of the biggest surprises of the presidential campaign season thus far is the flame-out of Ron DeSantis’s presidential campaign. The Florida governor has raked in cash, secured endorsements and bent the state legislature to his will, all in service to his presidential aspirations, but is getting defeated handily by Donald Trump in the polls. From Miami, the Guardian’s Richard Luscombe looks into why: Ron DeSantis is facing growing backlash in Florida as his presidential campaign flails across the country. Analysts and political opponents are seeing signs of a tail-off in his support, and evidence of Republicans recoiling at his extremist positions on slavery, education, abortion and immigration.
Hints at a shift in his standing came towards the end of the recently concluded legislative session in his home state, when several Republican lawmakers defied the governor by voting against new laws restricting abortions or expanding his feud with Disney. They passed anyway. But observers say the strength of the resistance appears to have gathered pace since DeSantis’s glitch-ridden presidential campaign launch in May, and subsequent missteps on the stump.
Over the weekend, Donald Trump held a rally in Pennsylvania, a swing state crucial to winning the White House, and made a demand that will be familiar to those who remember his stint as president. The Washington Post reports that Trump said: “Congress should refuse to authorize a single additional shipment of our depleted weapons stockpiles … to Ukraine until the FBI, DOJ and IRS hand over every scrap of evidence they have on the Biden Crime Family’s corrupt business dealings.” It wasn’t that far removed from his actions in 2019 when, as president, he blocked aid to Ukraine then, on a phone call with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, tried to get the Ukrainian president to cooperate with his administration in investigating Hunter Biden. That led to Democrats, who then controlled the House, impeaching Trump, though he was ultimately acquitted by the GOP-controlled Senate. Much has changed in the intervening three-plus years. Republicans now control the House, and Democrats the Senate, while Joe Biden is in the White House and Trump is just a candidate. But some things aren’t so different. Republicans seem willing to use their House majority to impeach Biden, but his conviction appears likely to be turned down by the Senate – a reversal of the dynamics that played out three years ago. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has, of course, become worse, but as his comments this weekend make clear, Trump seems ready to use the nation as a pawn for his political designs.
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Post by Webster on Jul 31, 2023 17:59:10 GMT -5
(The Guardian) A CNN analysis published on Sunday finds Donald Trump’s poll numbers add up to a commanding lead in the Republican primary, and any candidate who manages to overcome it would essentially be making history. Here’s the gist of their findings: Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.
No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent. He’s pulling in more than 50% of support in the national primary polls, i.e., more than all his competitors combined.
Three prior candidates in open primaries were pulling in more than half the vote in primary surveys in the second half of the calendar year before the election: Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Gore remains the only nonincumbent to win every single presidential nominating contest, while Bush and Clinton never lost their national polling advantage in their primaries.
Today, Trump’s closest primary competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has fallen below 20% nationally. No other contender is at or above 10%. This makes the margin between Trump and the rest of the field north of 30 points on average.
A look back at past polls does show candidates coming back from deficits greater than 10 points to win the nomination, but none greater than 30 points at this point. In fact, the biggest comebacks when you average all the polls in the second half of the year before the election top out at about 20 points (Democrats George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008).
CNN also finds that polls taken thus far show Trump mounting a dangerous challenge to Joe Biden, though with the election more than a year away, there are plenty of chances for that to change:
What should arguably be more amazing is that despite most Americans agreeing that Trump’s two indictments thus far were warranted, he remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden. A poll out last week from Marquette University Law School had Biden and Trump tied percentage-wise (with a statistically insignificant few more respondents choosing Trump).
The Marquette poll is one of a number of surveys showing Trump either tied or ahead of Biden. The ABC News/Washington Post poll has published three surveys of the matchup between the two, and Trump has come out ahead – albeit within the margin of error – every time. Other pollsters have shown Biden only narrowly ahead.
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Post by Webster on Jul 31, 2023 18:39:32 GMT -5
(The Guardian) Joe Biden just decided to keep the US Space Command headquarters in Colorado, rather than move it Alabama, the Associated Press reports. And, surprising as it might seem, Biden’s decision may soon be caught up in the debate over abortion access. First, a recap: Donald Trump created Space Force in 2019, and near the end of his presidency ordered it moved from its temporary home in Colorado Springs, Colorado to Huntsville, Alabama. Biden has now reversed that decision, dealing a blow to the economy of a deeply Republican state whose senator Tommy Tuberville has lately been blocking hundreds of military promotions in protest of defense department policies intended to help service members obtain abortions. While there is no indication yet that Biden’s decision has anything to do with Tuberville’s blockade, the president has personally decried the senator’s campaign, calling it “ridiculous” and saying it threatens the military’s readiness. Here’s more on the decision, from the AP: The officials said Biden was convinced by the head of Space Command, Gen. James Dickinson, who argued that moving his headquarters now would jeopardize military readiness. Dickinson’s view, however, was in contrast to Air Force leadership, who studied the issue at length and determined that relocating to Huntsville, Alabama, was the right move.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the decision ahead of the announcement.
The president, they said, believes that keeping the command in Colorado Springs would avoid a disruption in readiness that the move would cause, particularly as the U.S. races to compete with China in space. And they said Biden firmly believes that maintaining stability will help the military be better able to respond in space over the next decade.
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Post by Webster on Jul 31, 2023 18:57:43 GMT -5
(The Guardian) A month out from the first debate of the Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump’s domination of the field increases with each poll. On Monday, the first 2024 survey from the New York Times and Siena College put Trump at 54% support. His closest challenger, Ron DeSantis, was at 17%. No one else – including Mike Pence, Tim Scott and Nikki Haley – was higher than 3%. DeSantis’s hard-right campaign is widely seen to be out of fuel and on a glide path to destruction. Trump dominates early voting states and in national averages leads the Florida governor by more than 30 points. Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton county, Georgia, is “ready to go” with indictments in her investigation of Trump’s election subversion. In Washington, the special counsel Jack Smith is expected to add charges regarding election subversion to 40 counts already filed over the former president’s retention of classified records. Trump already faces 34 criminal charges in New York over hush-money payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels. Referring to Trump being ordered to pay $5m after being found liable for sexual abuse and defamation against the writer E Jean Carroll, a judge recently said Carroll proved Trump raped her. Lawsuits over Trump’s business affairs continue. Heading for trials in primary season, Trump denies wrongdoing and claims political persecution. But his chaos-agent campaign, which he has said he will not abandon even if convicted and sentenced, does not just threaten the national peace. It threatens his own party.
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Post by Webster on Aug 1, 2023 14:30:00 GMT -5
(The Guardian) Trump's legal troubles leaving campaign broke – reportDonald Trump’s multiplying legal troubles are taking a toll on his campaign finances as he spends more and more on lawyers, the New York Times reports. Trump’s Pac, Save America, has less than $4m in its account, down from the $105m it began last year with, the Times reports, citing federal records. So bad have its finances become that it has requested back $60m that it sent to a pro-Trump Super Pac, Make America Great Again Inc, which was supposed to spend the money on television ads. Since the start of the year, Trump has been indicted by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg on state charges of falsifying business records, and by special counsel Jack Smith for breaking federal law by allegedly keeping classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort, and by conspiring to keep them out of the hands of government archivists. Trump has been told Smith may bring new charges against him related to his involvement in the January 6 insurrection, while, in Georgia, Fulton county district attorney Fani Willis said she will announce indictments in her investigation of Trump and his allies’ attempt to overturn the 2020 election sometime before September. The stage is set for Trump to continue paying huge legal fees for months, but he has one good thing going for him: his massive lead among Republican presidential candidates, which potentially could alleviate some of the damage done if he has to pullback on campaign spending. Here’s more on his dire finances, from the Times: The super PAC, which is called Make America Great Again Inc., has already sent back $12.25 million to the group paying Mr. Trump’s legal bills, according to federal records — a sum nearly as large as the $13.1 million the super PAC raised from donors in the first half of 2023. Those donations included $1 million from the father of his son-in-law, Charles Kushner, whom Mr. Trump pardoned for federal crimes in his final days as president, and $100,000 from a candidate seeking Mr. Trump’s endorsement.
The extraordinary shift of money from the super PAC to Mr. Trump’s political committee, described in federal campaign filings as a refund, is believed to be larger than any other refund on record in the history of federal campaigns.
It comes as Mr. Trump’s political and legal fate appear increasingly intertwined. The return of money from the super PAC, which Mr. Trump does not control, to his political action committee, which he does, demonstrates how his operation is balancing dueling priorities: paying lawyers and supporting his political candidacy through television ads.
Save America, Mr. Trump’s political action committee, is prohibited by law from directly spending money on his candidacy. When Save America donated $60 million last year to Mr. Trump’s super PAC — which is permitted to spend on his campaign — it effectively evaded that prohibition. It is not clear from the filing exactly when the refund was requested, but the super PAC did not return the money all at once. It gave back $1 million on May 1; $5 million more on May 9; another $5 million on June 1; and $1.25 million on June 30. These returns followed Mr. Trump’s two indictments this year: one in Manhattan in March, and one last month in federal court.
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Post by Webster on Aug 1, 2023 14:31:14 GMT -5
(The Guardian) Donald Trump’s legal problems may be formidable, but as the Guardian’s Martin Pengelly reports, so, too, is his popularity among Republicans: Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton county, Georgia, is “ready to go” with indictments in her investigation of Donald Trump’s election subversion. In Washington, the special counsel Jack Smith is expected to add charges regarding election subversion to 40 counts already filed over the former president’s retention of classified records.
Trump already faces 34 criminal charges in New York over hush-money payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels. Referring to Trump being ordered to pay $5m after being found liable for sexual abuse and defamation against the writer E Jean Carroll, a judge recently said Carroll proved Trump raped her. Lawsuits over Trump’s business affairs continue.
Yet a month out from the first debate of the Republican presidential primary, Trump’s domination of the field increases with each poll.
Joe Biden is taking a summer vacation after several months in which things seemed to increasingly come together for the American president. Over the weekend, the Guardian’s David Smith looked at this administration’s recent hot streak – as well as the challenges he faces in the year to come: It was the word that the far right of the Republican party most wanted to hear. Kevin McCarthy, speaker of the House of Representatives, said this week his colleagues’ investigations of Joe Biden are rising to the level of an “impeachment” inquiry.
Republicans in Congress admit that they do not yet have any direct evidence of wrongdoing by the US president. But, critics say, there is a simple explanation why they would float the ultimate sanction: they need to put Biden’s character on trial because their case against his policies is falling apart.
Heading into next year’s presidential election, Republicans have been readying a three-pronged attack: crime soaring in cities, chaos raging at the southern border and prices spiralling out of control everywhere. But each of these narratives is being disrupted by facts on the ground: crime is falling in most parts of the country, there is relative calm at the border and inflation is at a two-year low.
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Post by Webster on Aug 1, 2023 14:33:30 GMT -5
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Post by Webster on Aug 1, 2023 18:33:09 GMT -5
(The Guardian) Trump’s rivals in the 2024 Republican primary have offered a range of responses to news of the indictment. Ron DeSantis, who has tried to displace Trump as the frontrunner while trying to woo the former president’s far-right voter base, said, “As President, I will end the weaponization of government, replace the FBI Director, and ensure a single standard of justice for all Americans. “While I’ve seen reports, I have not read the indictment. I do, though, believe we need to enact reforms so that Americans have the right to remove cases from Washington, DC to their home districts. Washington, DC is a ‘swamp’ and it is unfair to have to stand trial before a jury that is reflective of the swamp mentality,” he tweeted. Meanwhile, the long-shot candidate Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, called for Trump to end his candidacy. “The latest indictment reaffirms my earlier call that Donald Trump should step away from the campaign for the good of the country,” he said. “If not, the voters must choose a different path.”
Trump’s indictments will not disqualify him from running for office, nor will any conviction. However, it would highly unusual for a thrice-indicted candidate to win the Republican presidential nomination. The only other presidential nominee to run under indictment in recent history is former Texas governor Rick Perry, who sought the 2016 Republican nomination after he was indicted for abuse of power. Another candidate, socialist party candidate Eugene Debs ran while imprisoned. Trump has three indictments so far – special counsel Jack Smith, who indicted him in the the January 6 case, has also charged him with the illegal retention of classified documents. Trump also was criminally charged in New York, over hush money payments, and in a civil trial over business practices. In Georgia, the attorney general has been investigating Trump and his allies alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 results – and is expected to announces charging decisions this month.
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Post by Webster on Aug 2, 2023 14:11:56 GMT -5
(The Guardian) Obama warned Biden of Trump's continued strength - reportBarack Obama warned Joe Biden that Donald Trump would be a formidable election opponent, even with his legal troubles, the Washington Post reports. The warning came over lunch at the White House between the current president and Obama, whom Biden served under as vice-president from 2009 to 2017. Among the factors Obama cited as helping Trump were “an intensely loyal following, a Trump-friendly conservative media ecosystem and a polarized country”, the Post reports. Here’s more from the Post’s report: At the lunch, held in late June in the White House residence, Obama promised to do all he could to help the president get reelected, according to two people familiar with the meeting, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversation.
That commitment was a welcome gesture for the White House at a time when Biden is eager to lock down promises of help from top Democrats, among whom Obama is easily the biggest star, for what is likely to be a hard-fought reelection race. The contents of the private conversation have not been previously reported.
Obama was visiting the White House for what Biden aides described as a regular catch-up between the two men who served in the White House together for eight years. During their lunch, Obama made it clear his concerns were not about Biden’s political abilities, but rather a recognition of Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party, according to the people.
Recent polling suggests Trump has a significant lead over his GOP rivals and that he and Biden are essentially tied in a hypothetical rematch.
The White House said there was no specific agenda for the June 27 meeting, and people briefed on the conversation said the two presidents discussed a range of political, policy and personal matters, including updates about their families.
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Post by Webster on Aug 3, 2023 17:42:15 GMT -5
(The Guardian) Politicial observers are not just watching the criminal proceedings against former president Donald Trump, but also the reaction of the Republican party to them. This morning AP congressional correspondent Lisa Mascaro has looked at the contrast between Mitch McConnell’s words at the time of the 6 January uprising and subsequent impeachment, and what he is – or rather isn’t – saying now. At a rally last weekend, Trump argued he was exercising his right to free speech as he challenged the 2020 election results. In the indictment, the prosecution acknowledges Trump had a right to challenge the results. But, crucially, it said Trump repeated his knowingly false claims to give them legitimacy and “create an intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger, and erode public faith in the administration of the election.” At the time, Mascaro notes, McConnell put it similarly. “The issue is not only the President’s intemperate language on 6 January” McConnell said ahead of the Senate vote to acquit Trump of the impeachment charge of insurrection. It was also the entire manufactured atmosphere of looming catastrophe; the increasingly wild myths – myths – about a reverse landslide election that was somehow being stolen in some secret coup.” McConnell said, “The leader of the free world cannot spend weeks thundering that shadowy forces are stealing our country and then feign surprise when people believe him and do reckless things.” And when Senate leader McConnell rose to announce his vote to acquit Donald Trump of impeachment charges, the Republican assured the public the former president would have his day in court. “He didn’t get away with anything yet – yet,” McConnell vowed. “We have a criminal justice system in this country. We have civil litigation. And former presidents are not immune from being accountable by either one.” This week, as Trump prepares to face potential consequences from the criminal justice system, McConnell has remained silent.
The Hill this morning has a quote from a Republican strategist who suggest that today’s court appearance could be more significant for Donald Trump’s election chances than the others, because the public are more aware of what took place on 6 January 2021. It quotes Vin Weber, a Republican strategist and former member of the House Republican leadership, saying “It’s politically more salient because of 6 January. The whole country knows what happens on 6 January. Most of the country watched it unfold on television. Whereas the Mar-a-Lago [documents case], while it may be very serious, it’s not something the average person pays a lot of attention to.”
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