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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:22:19 GMT -5
....man, they left the Fonz off the voter rolls....
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:24:41 GMT -5
(Daily Kos) IA-03 - Local democratic insiders already calling the race for Cindy Axne in Iowa 03 to take on David Young. Surprising margins from Axne.
(Daily Kos) I should note record early voting for a primary in Iowa this year, both statewide and especially on the Democratic side. Good night for Iowa Democrats.
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:25:07 GMT -5
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:28:32 GMT -5
(Daily Kos Elections) About two hours in the evening, here are where the key House races lie: AL-02-R (50% in)—Roby 39, Bright 28, Moore 20 IA-03-D (17% in)—Axne 57, Mauro 28, D’Alessandro 15 MS-03-R (66% in)—Guest 47, Hughes 21, Parker 17 MT-AL-D (7% in)—Heenan 48, Williams 23, Kier 18 NJ-05-R (66% in)—McCann 53, Lonegan 47 NM-01-D (43% in)—Haaland 39, Martinez 29, Sedillo Lopez 21 NM-02-R (40% in)—Harrell 49, Newman 34, Clarkson 11
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:30:10 GMT -5
(Daily Kos) McCaskill has always ran very strong in the Kansas City suburbs in the past, ahead of most Democrats. I imagine she’s very pleased that her old stomping grounds are still electing Democrats down-ballot in the age of Trump!
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:30:15 GMT -5
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:32:08 GMT -5
(Daily Kos) IA - 04 - JD Scholten projected by democratic insiders as the winner to take on the awful Steve King in NW Iowa. This race is safe Republican realistically, but keeping Republican margins down in the 4th is important to help statewide in Governor's race and some down ballot statehouse races. Scholtens I think can do that. He campaigns hard
(Daily Kos) Anyone hear anything about CA45 turnout? When I voted this morning (the site covers three precincts) they said turnout was low. Worries me. This is a district that Clinton won in and people want Walters OUT!
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:34:08 GMT -5
(Five Thirty-Eight) With 27 percent reporting in Iowa’s 3rd District, Cindy Axne leads the Democratic primary with 57 percent, to Eddie Mauro’s 28 percent. Polling had this a tied race, but remember how unreliable House and primary polling is? If Axne holds that massive lead, it could be a testament to how well women are doing in Democratic primaries this cycle, as Julia posted about earlier.
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:35:15 GMT -5
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:37:18 GMT -5
(Daily Kos) The tariffs on soybeans imposed by foreign nations might convince a few voters in the farm belt to turn away from Trump and Republicans. Can’t be sure, but a 10% loss in income has some persuasive value. Certainly there are folks who have bought into Trump 100%, but I have to believe some have doubts.
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:38:14 GMT -5
(Daily Kos Elections) NJ-02 (R): The AP has called the race for attorney Steve Grossman, who has a 40-31 lead on businessman Hirsh Singh with 90% reporting. After decreeing his party’s field here a “recruitment hole,” NRCC chair Steve Stivers later walked back his remarks and declared that Singh was “an impressive candidate with a compelling personal story.” He should have stuck with his original remarks. Anyhow, Grossman will face state Sen. Jeff Van Drew for this open GOP-held seat, a top pickup opportunity for Dems.
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:40:52 GMT -5
(Five Thirty-Eight) The Weird Incentives Of California PrimariesCalifornia’s top-two election system can create some potential lockouts, where the majority party in a district fails to coordinate and too many candidates run, splitting the vote and allowing the minority party’s candidates to take the only two available general election slots. This is a collective action problem — all the candidates agree that the field of candidates needs to be culled, but no one wants to be the one to drop out. One way the parties have tried to resolve this problem is to issue endorsements at their state convention; they provide a cue for party voters trying to decide between candidates. Such an endorsement is worth about 7 to 15 percentage points in the primary election, according to research I collaborated on. These help minimize lockouts, but they don’t prevent them completely. And sometimes the party can’t make up its mind in a crowded field. How many lockouts might we see tonight? I looked at the 2016 presidential vote in all 153 contested congressional, state Senate and state Assembly districts in California. A lockout is possible when at least three candidates from the district’s majority party are on the ballot along with at least two candidates from the minority party (looking only at those on the certified list of candidates and excluding write-ins). By my calculations, there are four congressional districts that meet this definition and seem ripe for such a lockout this year — the 10th, 39th, 48th and 49th. (Of these, the state Democratic Party could decide on a candidate to endorse only in the 48th.) The same can be said for Senate District 32 (featuring eight Democratic candidates and two Republicans in a district where Clinton got 70 percent of the two-party vote in 2016) and the 74th Assembly district (three Democrats, two Republicans, where Clinton got 54 percent of the vote). A handful of potential lockouts out of 153 district elections isn’t a widespread problem, but it could cause some heartache for Democrats as they seek to take back the U.S. House.
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:42:02 GMT -5
(Daily Kos Elections) NJ-02 (R): The AP has called the race for attorney Steve Grossman, who has a 40-31 lead on businessman Hirsh Singh with 90% reporting. After decreeing his party’s field here a “recruitment hole,” NRCC chair Steve Stivers later walked back his remarks and declared that Singh was “an impressive candidate with a compelling personal story.” He should have stuck with his original remarks. Anyhow, Grossman will face state Sen. Jeff Van Drew for this open GOP-held seat, a top pickup opportunity for Dems.
(Daily Kos Elections) AL-02 (R): The AP has called a runoff between Rep. Martha Roby and ex-Rep. Bobby Bright. Roby has just a 39-29 lead on Bright, a former conservative Democrat who has reinvented himself as a full-blown Trump fanboy. Roby, by contrast, angered Trumpists when she rescinded her support for their man after the “grab them by the pussy” tape surfaced. For an incumbent to take such a low vote share in the first round is a pretty ominous sign for the second.
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:42:23 GMT -5
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Post by Webster on Jun 5, 2018 21:44:10 GMT -5
(Daily Kos Elections) IA-Gov (D): Another AP call, this time for wealthy businessman Fred Hubbell, who is crushing his nearest opponent, Cathy Glasson, 55-19. He'll take on Gov. Kim Reynolds in November in a state that swung sharply to Trump two years ago.
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